Tuesday 26 March 2013

Vanilla option pricing - Binomial tree

Binomial tree
The Binomial tree pricing model was first established by Cox, Ross and Robinstein. It is a numerical method in modeling the varying price over time on the underlying asset, then by using risk neutral pricing method to discount back the final payoff in order to get the option price.

Creating the binomial tree
This is the first step in this pricing model. Generally, we assume that the underlying asset's price S will move upward to S*u with a probability p and a downward move to $S*d(u*d = 1)$ with probability $1-p$.



Calculate the final payoff
As in previous assumptions, withe the risk neutral probability p, we can discount back the final payoff with respect to each note to calculate the option price.

An simple example of Binomial tree in C++:
 /* Binomial tree method
 * Copyright (C) Eric, CrazyQuant, Wed Mar 27 09:56:06 SGT 2013
 * keywords: binomial tree, risk neutral pricing
 */

int main(int argc, char *argv[]){
    int numberOfSteps = 10000;
    double spotPrice = 100;
    double strike = 100;
    double expiry = 1.0;
    double delta_t = expiry / static_cast(numberOfSteps);
    double sigma = 0.03;
    double r = 0.02;
    double upMove = exp(sigma * sqrt(delta_t));
    double downMove = 1 / upMove;
    double p = (exp(r * delta_t) - downMove) / (upMove - downMove);
    double q = 1 - p;
    double discounting = exp(-r * delta_t);

    // create binomial tree
    const int arraySize = numberOfSteps + 1;
    double* stockPrice = new double[arraySize];
    // calculate this base price then multiply by u^2 to save time
    double basePrice = spotPrice * pow(downMove, numberOfSteps); 
    stockPrice[0] = basePrice;
    for(int i = 1; i < arraySize; i++)
        stockPrice[i] = stockPrice[i - 1] * upMove * upMove;

    // calculate final payoff, for european call option
    double* optionPayoff = new double[arraySize];
    for(int i = 0; i < arraySize; i++)
        optionPayoff[i] = stockPrice[i] > strike ? (stockPrice[i] - strike) : 0.0;
    
    // discount back to get the option price
    double* tmpPrice = optionPayoff; 
    for(int i = numberOfSteps; i > 0; i--){
    for(int j = 0; j < i; j++)
        tmpPrice[j] = discounting * (q * tmpPrice[j] + p * tmpPrice[j + 1]);
    }
    
    double callOptionPrice = tmpPrice[0];
    cout << "European call option: " << callOptionPrice << endl;

    delete[] stockPrice;
    delete[] optionPayoff;
    return 0;
}

outcome:
European call option: 2.42892

As compared to the Monte-Carlo method, the results are almost the same.

2 comments:

  1. Hey Eric, I am Jasper, from HKUST
    it is a very good website!!! keep it up!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Jasper. Sure I will keep working on tt. You can also reach me at journey.jie@gmail.com.

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